Prophet fit RuntimeError: Error during optimization

huangapple
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英文:

Prophet fit RuntimeError: Error during optimization

问题

这是我的数据框的外观：

[![在此输入图像描述][1]][1]

然后当我尝试拟合prophet模型时，出现了这个错误：

  1. >>> from prophet import Prophet
  2. >>> m = Prophet()
  3. >>> m.fit(df)
  5. 16:35:16 - cmdstanpy - INFO - 链 [1] 开始处理
  6. 16:35:16 - cmdstanpy - INFO - 链 [1] 处理完成
  7. 16:35:16 - cmdstanpy - ERROR - 链 [1] 错误: 信号6终止 未知错误: -6
  8. 优化异常终止。回退到牛顿法。
  9. 16:36:22 - cmdstanpy - INFO - 链 [1] 开始处理
  10. 16:36:22 - cmdstanpy - INFO - 链 [1] 处理完成
  11. 16:36:22 - cmdstanpy - ERROR - 链 [1] 错误: 信号6终止 未知错误: -6
  12. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  13. 运行时错误                              Traceback (most recent call last)
  14. File ~/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/models.py:96，在 CmdStanPyBackend.fit(self, stan_init, stan_data, **kwargs) 中
  15.      95 try:
  16. --- 96     self.stan_fit = self.model.optimize(**args)
  17.      97 except RuntimeError as e:
  18.      98     # 回退到牛顿法
  20. File ~/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/cmdstanpy/model.py:738，在 CmdStanModel.optimize(self, data, seed, inits, output_dir, sig_figs, save_profile, algorithm, init_alpha, tol_obj, tol_rel_obj, tol_grad, tol_rel_grad, tol_param, history_size, iter, save_iterations, require_converged, show_console, refresh, time_fmt, timeout) 中
  21.     737     else:
  22. -- 738         raise RuntimeError(msg)
  23.     739 mle = CmdStanMLE(runset)
  25. 运行时错误: 优化期间发生错误！ 命令 '/Users/Admin/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/stan_model/prophet_model.bin 随机种子=56334 数据文件=/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/tmpcyyh7d7t/2qlqak12.json 初始值=/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/tmpcyyh7d7t/z3_79y1x.json 输出文件=/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/tmpcyyh7d7t/prophet_modelufn_f82n/prophet_model-20230208163516.csv 方法=优化 算法=lbfgs 迭代=10000' 失败：控制台日志输出：
  27. dyld[37030]: 未加载库：@rpath/libtbb.dylib
  28.   引用自：<AC271190-0BD7-38FF-AFC9-F18DFE088087> /Users/Admin/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/stan_model/prophet_model.bin
  29.   原因：尝试：'/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib'（无此文件），'/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib'（无此文件），'/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib'（无此文件），'/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS@rpath/libtbb.dylib'（无此文件），'/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib'（无此文件），'/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib'（无此文件），'/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib'（无此文件），'/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6
  31. <details>
  32. <summary>英文:</summary>
  34. This is how my dataframe looks like:
  36. [![enter image description here][1]][1]
  38. Then when I try to fit a prophet model, I get this error:
  40.     &gt;&gt;&gt; from prophet import Prophet
  41.     &gt;&gt;&gt; m = Prophet()
  42.     &gt;&gt;&gt; m.fit(df)
  43.     
  44.     16:35:16 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] start processing
  45.     16:35:16 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] done processing
  46.     16:35:16 - cmdstanpy - ERROR - Chain [1] error: terminated by signal 6 Unknown error: -6
  47.     Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton.
  48.     16:36:22 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] start processing
  49.     16:36:22 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] done processing
  50.     16:36:22 - cmdstanpy - ERROR - Chain [1] error: terminated by signal 6 Unknown error: -6
  51.     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  52.     RuntimeError                              Traceback (most recent call last)
  53.     File ~/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/models.py:96, in CmdStanPyBackend.fit(self, stan_init, stan_data, **kwargs)
  54.          95 try:
  55.     ---&gt; 96     self.stan_fit = self.model.optimize(**args)
  56.          97 except RuntimeError as e:
  57.          98     # Fall back on Newton
  58.     
  59.     File ~/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/cmdstanpy/model.py:738, in CmdStanModel.optimize(self, data, seed, inits, output_dir, sig_figs, save_profile, algorithm, init_alpha, tol_obj, tol_rel_obj, tol_grad, tol_rel_grad, tol_param, history_size, iter, save_iterations, require_converged, show_console, refresh, time_fmt, timeout)
  60.         737     else:
  61.     --&gt; 738         raise RuntimeError(msg)
  62.         739 mle = CmdStanMLE(runset)
  63.     
  64.     RuntimeError: Error during optimization! Command &#39;/Users/Admin/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/stan_model/prophet_model.bin random seed=56334 data file=/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/tmpcyyh7d7t/2qlqak12.json init=/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/tmpcyyh7d7t/z3_79y1x.json output file=/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/tmpcyyh7d7t/prophet_modelufn_f82n/prophet_model-20230208163516.csv method=optimize algorithm=lbfgs iter=10000&#39; failed: console log output:
  65.     
  66.     dyld[37030]: Library not loaded: @rpath/libtbb.dylib
  67.       Referenced from: &lt;AC271190-0BD7-38FF-AFC9-F18DFE088087&gt; /Users/Admin/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/stan_model/prophet_model.bin
  68.       Reason: tried: &#39;/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS@rpath/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/usr/local/lib/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/usr/lib/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file, not in dyld cache)
  69.     
  70.     
  71.     During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:
  72.     
  73.     RuntimeError                              Traceback (most recent call last)
  74.     Input In [7], in &lt;cell line: 3&gt;()
  75.           1 m = Prophet()
  76.     ----&gt; 2 m.fit(df)
  77.     
  78.     File ~/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/forecaster.py:1181, in Prophet.fit(self, df, **kwargs)
  79.        1179     self.params = self.stan_backend.sampling(stan_init, dat, self.mcmc_samples, **kwargs)
  80.        1180 else:
  81.     -&gt; 1181     self.params = self.stan_backend.fit(stan_init, dat, **kwargs)
  82.        1183 self.stan_fit = self.stan_backend.stan_fit
  83.        1184 # If no changepoints were requested, replace delta with 0s
  84.     
  85.     File ~/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/models.py:103, in CmdStanPyBackend.fit(self, stan_init, stan_data, **kwargs)
  86.         101     logger.warning(&#39;Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton.&#39;)
  87.         102     args[&#39;algorithm&#39;] = &#39;Newton&#39;
  88.     --&gt; 103     self.stan_fit = self.model.optimize(**args)
  89.         104 params = self.stan_to_dict_numpy(
  90.         105     self.stan_fit.column_names, self.stan_fit.optimized_params_np)
  91.         106 for par in params:
  92.     
  93.     File ~/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/cmdstanpy/model.py:738, in CmdStanModel.optimize(self, data, seed, inits, output_dir, sig_figs, save_profile, algorithm, init_alpha, tol_obj, tol_rel_obj, tol_grad, tol_rel_grad, tol_param, history_size, iter, save_iterations, require_converged, show_console, refresh, time_fmt, timeout)
  94.         736         get_logger().warning(msg)
  95.         737     else:
  96.     --&gt; 738         raise RuntimeError(msg)
  97.         739 mle = CmdStanMLE(runset)
  98.         740 return mle
  99.     
  100.     RuntimeError: Error during optimization! Command &#39;/Users/Admin/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/stan_model/prophet_model.bin random seed=73289 data file=/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/tmpcyyh7d7t/6qjofygo.json init=/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/tmpcyyh7d7t/3wkgsh__.json output file=/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/tmpcyyh7d7t/prophet_modelpxzqvzzp/prophet_model-20230208163622.csv method=optimize algorithm=newton iter=10000&#39; failed: console log output:
  101.     
  102.     dyld[37096]: Library not loaded: @rpath/libtbb.dylib
  103.       Referenced from: &lt;AC271190-0BD7-38FF-AFC9-F18DFE088087&gt; /Users/Admin/miniforge3/lib/python3.10/site-packages/prophet/stan_model/prophet_model.bin
  104.       Reason: tried: &#39;/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS@rpath/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/private/var/folders/8f/qf0d4l3j2mn5_vw839wgcj1w0000gn/T/pip-install-woutubot/prophet_98a976c6cbfd4e95b7cb41d7d690c7eb/build/lib.macosx-11.0-arm64-cpython-310/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.26.1/stan/lib/stan_math/lib/tbb/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/usr/local/lib/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file), &#39;/usr/lib/libtbb.dylib&#39; (no such file, not in dyld cache)
  105.     
  106. Any idea what the problem is? I am on an M1 Mac, if that matters.
  107.     
  108. [1]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/TP28d.png
  110. </details>
  113. # 答案1
  114. **得分**: 1
  116. 最近遇到了上述错误，也许这个帖子对你有帮助 --&gt; https://github.com/facebook/prophet/issues/2354
  118. <details>
  119. <summary>英文:</summary>
  121. Recently ran into the above error, maybe the thread here helps --&gt; https://github.com/facebook/prophet/issues/2354
  123. </details>

huangapple
  • 本文由 发表于 2023年2月8日 19:13:27
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